China’s fossil fuel use in the energy sector could soon peak, together with related emissions as clean power surges and electrification spreads across the country, two separate reports said on Tuesday, suggesting it may be reaching a turning point keenly awaited by climate analysts.
Beijing’s energy transition is entering a new phase where renewables are starting to drive down demand for fossil fuels rather than simply creating additional capacity, think-tank Ember said.
Electricity generated from clean energy sources, including nuclear, outstripped demand growth in the first half of 2025, cutting fossil fuel use by 2% compared to the same period last year, Ember’s analysis showed.
While coal remains the primary source in the country’s electricity mix, the data raises the prospect that its use in the power sector could soon peak and begin falling. As China is the largest fossil fuel consumer and the biggest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, a long-term shift would give a major boost to efforts to limit global warming.
Muyi Yang, a senior analyst at Ember, said China is no longer just stacking renewables on top of fossil fuels. “Fossil fuel use in power generation and end-use sectors is nearing a plateau,” he added in a written statement. “What once seemed like mere additions now looks like the take-off point for real transformation.”
Coal tension
A separate analysis by Greenpeace East Asia predicted that China’s coal power generation and total emissions from its energy sector could peak as soon as this year under an “ambitious” scenario that sees an accelerated use of non-fossil sources.
Gao Yuhe, Greenpeace East Asia’s climate and energy project manager, said Beijing has a “critical window” to reshape its power system. China must accelerate the integration of renewable energy as the “mainstay of the power system” and stop relying on coal power, she added.
China’s growing spending on the rollout of solar and wind energy has vastly outstripped any other country over recent years. But investment in new coal infrastructure has also continued apace, raising concerns over China’s ability to curb emissions and meet climate targets.
China commissioned 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power plant capacity in the first half of 2025, the highest amount for the period since 2016, according to a recent analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Beyond the energy sector, the use of coal as a raw material to produce liquid fuels and chemicals – including plastics – is also soaring.
Coal phase-down timeline needed
President Xi Jinping has committed to phasing down coal use from 2026, while keeping China’s coal power stations primarily as a backup for clean energy. But experts say a wide range of incentives are still supporting new investments.
Greenpeace’s Gao said Beijing should draft a clear timetable for phasing out coal power, as “every new coal approval will limit the space for renewables”.
The different reports point to a contradiction with China doubling down on new coal power approvals at the same time as coal use in its power generation falls to record low.
Ember’s analysis showed China’s push towards a peak in fossil fuel use is also being helped by the rising electrification of transport, heating and industrial production, which have historically depended on the direct use of coal and oil-derived products.
The think-tank believes China’s deployment of a new model based on growing clean energy and end-use electrification could reshape the economics of energy across the world and prompt other countries to follow suit.
China’s model exported overseas
China would stand to benefit directly from such a transformation given its dominant position in the global supply chains of clean energy technologies, electric vehicles and critical minerals.
Energy was among the focus areas of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last week, when President Xi hosted 20 leaders of non-Western countries, including India’s Narendra Modi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
The forum closed with an open-ended commitment for China to “jointly develop” 10 gigawatts (GW) of wind and 10 GW of solar power overseas during the next five years.
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Li Yuxiao, a project lead for Greenpeace East Asia, said significant barriers will need to be removed for that commitment to be delivered.
“Overseas wind and solar investment is a major headache for Chinese investors, and the system is not as well-worked for these types of projects as it once was for coal and remains for other fossil fuels,” she added.
Ineffective financing tools, limited insurance guarantees and lengthy approval processes are cited among the hurdles project developers are still facing.
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