Katye Altieri leads Ember’s research on tracking global clean power commitments to 2030, and Dave Jones is chief analyst at Ember.
Two years ago, the world stood on the cusp of a clean energy breakthrough. At the COP28 climate summit in December 2023, 133 countries pledged to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This is the single biggest step we can take this decade to keep as close as possible to the 1.5C global warming limit.
New data from Ember shows that 2030 national renewable targets add up to just 2% more than they did just prior to the COP28 announcement. National targets add up to a doubling of global renewables capacity by 2030, not the tripling that countries signed up to.
Outside the EU, just seven countries have updated their targets since COP28 – and some even lowered ambition by a small amount.
Yet hope is not lost. Record solar growth in 2024 has exceeded all expectations, positioning solar at the forefront of the clean energy revolution. If the boom continues, the world may still come close to tripling – but that would be in spite of government action, not because of it.
This paper shows how renewables targets not only help a faster roll-out, but also make renewable electricity cheaper and more secure.
Why renewables need targets
“Targets” mean different things to different people. At one extreme, it’s a “suggestion” of what to aim for, at the other extreme it’s a legally binding requirement. If renewable “targets” are to be useful, they should probably fall in the middle of the two extremes.
Targets for wind are particularly useful, especially offshore wind, due to the lengthy lead times. The Energy Transitions Council shows that lead times can reach 12 years for offshore wind in the UK and 10 years for onshore wind in Spain. It also highlights that the first solution to reducing lead times is for governments to implement a “strategic vision with medium term GW (gigawatt) targets”.
Targets for solar can also be useful and can help preempt issues. Targets can provide clarity for setting auctions, land use rules, permitting rules for both rooftop and utility solar, market design rules (including how to incentivise batteries) and rules on grid-forming inverters to ensure security of supply. They can even inform trade policy.
If all the “tripling capacity” was with solar alone, it would not deliver as much generation – 1 megawatt of solar produces roughly half the generation of wind. And, of course, a mix of wind and solar would reduce integration costs, as they are often complementary.
Texas wind peaks in the morning and evening while solar peaks at midday, while in NW Europe wind peaks in winter and solar in summer. So relying on solar growth alone isn’t a smart strategy – and is another case for wind-specific targets.
Clear goals for grids are also critical, as planning can take a decade or more. Similarly, transmission lines can take five to ten years to plan and build. This is why at COP29, one year after the tripling pledge, a Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge was developed, to support and enable the global tripling of renewables.
What governments are – and aren’t doing
Targets may seem symbolic, but in energy markets, signals are everything. Investors, developers, and manufacturers plan around national goals. A clear 2030 target tells solar and wind developers to expand, grid operators to prepare connections, and battery makers to scale up production.
Without that signal, money hesitates. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act sparked a boom in renewables, but with no binding national target — and Trump’s new “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” rolling back incentives — the Repeat Project at Princeton University now forecasts cuts in expected solar and wind additions by 2030.
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The same pattern is visible elsewhere: South Africa’s outdated Integrated Resource Plan left developers ready to build but stuck in interconnection queues, worsening the country’s blackouts.
Japan’s unchanged 2030 target, reaffirmed in its 7th Strategic Energy Plan, signals to investors that the pace of renewables will remain slow despite abundant offshore wind potential. Meanwhile, Russia and Canada – both major power producers – have no credible 2030 renewables targets at all, leaving grids and supply chains directionless.
The cost of complacency
Every year of delay increases costs. Investments slow because supply chains can’t see guaranteed demand. Grids lag behind renewables, creating curtailment and lost revenue. Fossil fuels linger, forcing consumers to pay more for volatile gas and coal.
We’re in the “age of electricity”, according to the International Energy Agency, where the majority of overall energy demand growth is from electricity. And in 2025, 90% of the electricity demand growth will be met with solar and wind.
The pace of change is impressive – but rising electricity bills and Spain’s blackout are stark reminders that it must be delivered more affordably and more securely. Clear roadmaps make renewables cheaper and more secure. National targets are those roadmaps. The global pledge to triple renewables was a political triumph. But without government follow-through, the world is unlikely to reach this critical milestone.
