Hosting a COP in the Amazon, the world’s largest tropical rainforest, has raised hopes that this year’s UN climate summit in Brazil will be free from the shadow of fossil fuels, after the last two were held in major oil-producing countries. But even as Brazil faces extreme heat and flooding, its government has signalled it wants to extract more climate-warming oil.
“I dream of a day when we no longer need fossil fuels, but that day is still far away. Humanity will depend on them for a long time,” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said last week during a speech in Belém, the capital of Pará and the host city for November’s COP30.
This Tuesday, Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council, which brings together federal ministers, approved the Latin American nation’s entry into the Charter of Cooperation (CoC) between oil-producing countries, a discussion forum linked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+).
It provides a platform to “facilitate dialogue and exchange views regarding conditions and developments in the global oil and energy markets”, according to OPEC. Despite lacking binding obligations, Brazil’s entry into the CoC has brought backlash from climate groups.
“This is a disappointing setback for everyone who relies on the Brazilian government to lead a just transition away from fossil fuel exploration—an essential step if we are to survive on this planet,” said André Guimarães, director of the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).
According to a report by the climate campaign group 350.org, Brazil became the third-largest country in terms of investment in expanding its oil and gas sector last year, shortly after countries agreed at the COP28 in Dubai to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
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Fossil fuel growth
If Brazil were to maintain only the oil wells it currently has in operation, the country’s production would decline by 64% by 2035. However, with new exploration projects set to be licensed, Brazil’s oil production is expected to increase by 36% in the next decade, according to analysis by 350.org based on International Energy Agency (IEA) data.
President Lula responded to criticism that his support for oil would tarnish Brazil’s leadership at COP30. “Look at the United States; see if France is worried. No, they are exploiting as much as they can. It’s England exploiting [oil] in Guyana and France in Suriname,” he said, pointing out that neighbouring countries are already profiting from oil in the Amazon region, working with Europe-based multinationals.
In his speeches, Lula has argued that the profits from new oil explorations will be used to finance the energy transition. However, this claim has been met with skepticism and sarcasm from environmentalists.
“It’s like recommending smoking twice as much to raise more money for lung cancer treatment,” mocks Caetano Scannavino, from the Amazonian NGO Saúde e Alegria.
In 2010, the Lula government passed a law stipulating that revenues from oil exploration in the pre-salt fields—a new source of wealth for Brazil at the time—would be invested in health and education. However, amid an economic crisis in the following years, the government redirected those funds to cover other expenses such as public debt.
Amazon oil
Since taking office for his third non-consecutive term, Lula’s government has been seeking an environmental license to drill an exploratory oil well in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, located along the coast of Amapá state, in an area of extreme environmental sensitivity.
The license was denied early in his administration, in May 2023. Experts at IBAMA (the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, the federal government’s environmental agency) concluded that Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, had failed to present a solid impact mitigation and emergency response plan.
Additionally, IBAMA’s President Rodrigo Agostinho noted the risks of exploring the area without first conducting a Sedimentary Area Environmental Assessment (AAAS). This includes an assessment of sensitive ecosystems, biodiversity hotspots and affected communities to determine potential environmental and social impacts.
Since then, three ministers – Alexandre Padilha for Institutional Relations, Rui Costa who is Chief of Staff, and Alexandre Silveira for Mines and Energy – have been negotiating a political agreement with the Ministry of the Environment, led by Marina Silva.
Seen as a roadblock by other ministries, Silva has repeatedly stated that IBAMA’s decision will be purely technical. However, sources within the government told Climate Home that the license is expected to be granted by the end of March.
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Pressure from above
Even if IBAMA’s technical staff reject Petrobras’ revised plans, the agency’s leadership could still approve the drilling under political pressure from the president himself. Lula has been considering replacing IBAMA’s current president and has reportedly been eyeing Márcio Macêdo, a close ally who currently heads the General Secretariat of the Presidency.
“We can’t keep up this back-and-forth with IBAMA, which is a government agency but seems to act against the government,” Lula said last week during an interview to Diário FM, a local radio in Amapá state.
The environmental public servants’ association, Ascema, responded to that declaration with a letter stating that political pressure is unacceptable and that evaluations take the time needed to assess potential environmental and social impacts, as well as mitigation or compensation measures.
“The attempt to fast-track the approval of high-impact projects without due adherence to technical and scientific procedures threatens not only the integrity of Brazil’s ecosystems but also the rights of traditional populations and local communities directly affected by these decisions,” stated the Brazilian Forum of NGOs for the Environment.
Pressure to fast-track environmental licensing for large infrastructure projects, such as hydroelectric dams and highways, has already left a stain on the left-wing administrations of Lula and his successor, Dilma Rousseff. The most emblematic case was the construction of the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam in Pará state in the Amazon.
In 2011, the approval of its environmental license led to the dismissal of IBAMA’s president. The project significantly impacted the Xingu River, a large tributary of the Amazon River, and Indigenous communities who depended on the river were not consulted. The violation of their rights was later recognised by Brazil’s Supreme Court.
Recently, due to the variability of the region’s hydrological regime combined with an undersized reservoir infrastructure, the dam has been operating at less than half of its projected power generation capacity, calling into question the economic rationale of the project.
Weakening studies
Now, the government aims to speed up environmental approval for drilling in the Foz do Amazonas basin by weakening IBAMA’s evaluation process. Through legal opinions issued by the Attorney General’s Office, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) has successfully narrowed the scope of the environmental assessment.
One of its main arguments was that IBAMA cannot require mitigation measures for noise pollution caused by aircraft in the region, despite complaints from Indigenous communities that disturbances have scared away game animals essential to their way of life.
Another requirement that was legally overturned was the demand for a Sedimentary Area Environmental Assessment, a tool the MME has resisted implementing, since it could identify areas where oil exploration should be restricted.
With much of the licensing process stripped down, IBAMA’s final decision now hinges on the company’s emergency response plan. The initial denial of Petrobras’ request was based, among other criteria, on the absence of a plan to rescue wildlife in the event of an oil spill.
In response, the company built a wildlife rescue centre on the coast of Amapá state. This plan remains the last pending issue, and its approval will determine whether the license is granted.
Government officials at the Ministry of Environment told Climate Home they fear that the issuance of the license could send a crucial signal to potential fossil fuel investors in the region, as the National Petroleum Agency has already announced it will auction another 47 oil blocks in the same area of the Foz do Amazonas basin in June.
