Heavier electric trucks could strain New York City’s roads and bridges, study warns

New York City’s roads and bridges already incur millions in annual damage from oversized trucks, and a new study warns the shift to electric freight could intensify that burden. As electric trucks replace diesel models, their heavier batteries could increase the city’s yearly repair costs by up to nearly 12% by 2050.

Led by C2SMART researchers at NYU Tandon School of Engineering in collaboration with Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and published in Transport Policy, the study finds that oversized trucks already cause about $4.16 million in damage each year while permits bring in only $1.28 million. Electric trucks typically weigh 2,000 to 3,000 pounds more than diesel models, and in rare long-range cases as much as 8,000 to 9,000, so the financial gap is expected to grow.

“As electric vehicles become more common, our city’s infrastructure will face new and changing demands to support this transition,” said Professor Kaan Ozbay, the paper’s senior author and director of NYU Tandon’s C2SMART transportation research center. “Our framework shows that the city should adapt its planning and fee structures to ensure it can accommodate the costs of keeping bridges and roads safe as a result of more widespread adoption of e-trucks. “

Using New York City’s Overdimensional Vehicle Permits dataset, the researchers modeled how electric-truck adoption could play out through 2050. They found that switching to e-trucks could increase damage costs by 2.23 to 4.45% by 2030, and by 9.19 to 11.71% by 2050. More extreme scenarios tied to unusually heavy batteries produced higher figures, though the authors say those outcomes are unlikely as technology improves.

The impact would not be uniform across the city. Manhattan faces the greatest increase, with parts of Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx also at risk due to heavy truck volumes and aging structures. Staten Island and many outer areas show lower impact. Bridges shoulder about 65% of the added costs because they are especially sensitive to increases in gross vehicle weight. Pavement, affected more by axle loads, wears down more gradually.

“We found that conventional oversized trucks in New York City already impose more than $4 million in annual damage,” said the study’s lead author Zerun Liu, NYU Tandon Ph.D. candidate in the Civil and Urban Engineering department’s recently established Urban Systems Ph.D. program, who is advised by Professor Ozbay. “With projected adoption of electric trucks, those costs could increase by an additional nearly 12%. That gap highlights the urgent need for new strategies to keep infrastructure sustainable.”

To manage the risks, the researchers created a susceptibility index identifying road segments and bridges most vulnerable to heavier vehicles. They recommend replacing flat permit fees with flexible, weight-based fees that reflect actual costs while still recognizing environmental benefits. They also call for expanding weight monitoring on high-risk corridors, especially in Manhattan, and factoring e-truck projections into city maintenance and capital plans to avoid expensive emergency repairs.

Although the study focuses on New York City, similar pressures are emerging elsewhere. The European Union allows zero-emission trucks to exceed weight limits by nearly 9,000 pounds, while U.S. rules permit an additional 2,000. The framework developed by the NYU Tandon and RIT team offers cities a way to balance climate goals with the realities of infrastructure wear.

Despite the added costs, the authors stress that the overall case for electric trucks in New York remains strong. Their scenarios suggest that widespread electrification could cut about 2,032 tons of carbon dioxide each year, improving air quality and public health.

“The proposed methodological framework can provide actionable insights for policymakers to ensure infrastructure longevity and safety as e-truck adoption grows,” Ozbay said.

In addition to senior author Ozbay and lead author Liu, the paper’s other authors are Jingqin Gao, C2SMART’s Assistant Director of Research; Tu Lan, a Ph.D. student in the Urban Systems Ph.D. program graduated under Professor Ozbay’s advisement; and Zilin Bian, a recent NYU Tandon Ph.D. graduate from the Civil and Urban Engineering department , now an assistant professor at RIT.