Researchers analyze future European energy demand for battery cell production

Europe accounts for about 25% of global electric vehicle sales. Despite the high demand, only around 6.8% of the energy required for cell production is currently supplied in Europe. Most of the energy is imported in the form of materials and battery cells.

A team led by Prof Simon Lux (University of Münster and Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production) has now analyzed the future energy requirements associated with the European Union’s (EU) goal of strengthening European battery supply chains. The study is published in the journal Energy & Environmental Science.

In order to achieve self-sufficiency by 2050, the researchers predict the EU will have to meet an annual increase in energy demand for local battery cell production from the current level of around 3.5 terawatt hours (TWh) per year to 250 TWh annually. This would only be possible if a well-developed recycling infrastructure were in place by then.

In addition, Europe would need 200 to 250 TWh to charge electric vehicles and compensate for efficiency losses when discharging batteries for electric vehicles and stationary storage systems. Nevertheless, the increasing energy demand for lithium- and sodium-ion batteries would be offset by 90 TWh of upstream fossil fuel energy.

“Strengthening local battery supply chains is crucial to reducing energy dependence,” says Lux. “However, it also requires the supply of significant amounts of energy in Europe.” Battery-based electricity demand is growing disproportionately compared to total electricity demand, which will require major investments in renewable electricity generation and the corresponding infrastructure.

It will also be crucial for Europe to maximize battery recycling rates and recycling efficiency to reduce import dependency and future energy demand. The researchers assume that there will be significant recycling capacity in Europe (approx. 800 gigawatt hours of battery capacity are expected to be recycled annually from 2050 onwards). This could reduce the energy required for battery production in Europe by 33 to 46%.

However, the current recycling infrastructure is still in its early stages of development. The researchers therefore conclude that European policymakers need to implement effective regulations that enable companies to develop viable and sustainable recycling capabilities.

The study is based on a life-cycle assessment analysis utilizing data from recent research studies and the ecoinvent database. In addition, the research team performed the energy demand analysis using a simulation model, developed by the Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy at the University of Münster, which represents a simplified battery circular economy.